Over the past couple of days, it's been reported that Dallas offered Prescott a five-year contract worth roughly $175 million. That deal would make him the highest-paid QB in NFL history (at least until Mahomes gets a new deal). Russell Wilson just signed an extension last month, which also averages $35 million a year, currently making him the highest-paid QB. When you have a player who performs well, you have to reward them with a fair contract. Sometimes players and teams don't see eye to eye on the player's worth, but this is the second offseason in a row where Dallas is struggling to come to terms with one of their star players. A lot of rumors have come out about the negotiations and whether Dak wants more money, if he's still contemplating the current offer, or if they just can't agree on the length of the deal. Despite the uncertainties, I just want to take a look at whether Prescott is deserving of being the highest-paid QB in the league or not.
First I want to take a look at some of his stats, then I want to look at a couple of knocks on him before deciding if he's worth that large of a contract or not. Dak was a fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, immediately started, hasn't missed a game in four seasons, and has a 40-24 career record. Last year, Prescott threw for 4,902 yards (2nd), 30 TD's (4th), 8.5 yards gained per passing attempt (5th), and had the highest QBR (99.7) among quarterbacks with at least 525 passing attempts. Even though Dak had one of his best statistical seasons, the Cowboys finished the season 8-8 and missed out on the playoffs by one game. Looking at that record it would be hard to justify following that season up with a record-setting contract, but it's also not exactly fair to blame last season's results on Dak alone. Prescott's TD-to-INT ratio was drastically worse in the eight losses and he threw 22 of his 30 touchdowns in the eight wins taking advantage of their weaker opponents. His receivers had good statistical seasons, but the Cowboys also led the league in dropped passes. He also finished last year top five in the league in percentage of passes thrown on target, so Dak's accuracy was not the problem. Dallas scored more than 30 points in all eight wins this season, averaging 37 during those games, while failing to score 30 in all of their losses. With a new head coach, Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys and Prescott have a fresh start and huge upside this season.
Possibly the biggest knock against giving Dak the contract is the stellar offensive line and Zeke in the backfield. The signing of Andy Dalton might be the Cowboys' way of trying to convince Prescott that they don't need him to win. There's no denying this is one of the best offensive lines in the game and it's been that way for a majority of Dak's career. In terms of sacks allowed, the Cowboys finished in the bottom 10 of the league three out of the last four years. Last season only the Vikings' offensive line gave their quarterback more time in the pocket before the pressure came. This offensive line is one of the best in the league, but you still need a quarterback who can make the right play. In his first three seasons, Dak led the Cowboys on 14 game-winning drives, which was the most during that span and already ranks him 18th all time. Another knock against Dak is his inability to beat good teams. The Cowboys went 0-5 last year against 10-win teams and his career record of 5-13 isn't much better. His TD-INT ratio during those losses is 22-19 compared to his 75-17 ratio against teams with nine wins or fewer. This is a fair critique, but when you look at any player's statistics during the losses compared to the wins, they are going to be worse. Zeke averages over a yard more per rushing attempt, two yards more per reception, and scored 39 of his 48 touchdowns in wins compared to losses. I know teams tend to run more in wins and less in losses, but typically the numbers per attempt wouldn't be this lopsided. Dak has struggled against competitive teams, but again, he's not the only problem.
The Cowboys have a talented, young core and a handful of players agreed to contract extensions over the last year, so they are in win-now mode. Dak knows that Jerry Jones needs him to keep this team in contention right now because bringing in another quarterback would be too risky. Knowing what I know, if Dak was offered a contract in the range of 5 years and $175 million, he would have to be extremely confident in himself to turn that down. Dallas shouldn't feel pressured to raise the offer when they can just let him play the year under the franchise tag. It would not only save the Cowboys money but, even if Dak has an amazing season, I don't think his free-agent market value will be as high as he thinks it is and he would be crazy to leave an offense like Dallas'. The Cowboys will eventually work out a deal with Dak if they want to, there is no doubt in my mind, but why not let him play this first year under the franchise tag with McCarthy. Historically teams with a highly paid quarterback have had a difficult time winning it all, so before they decide to lock him in for five years, they may want to roll the dice this season with him under the franchise tag. Does Dak deserve the contract? Yes, he's produced as one of the top quarterbacks since entering the league, has already led the Cowboys to two playoff appearances, and hasn't missed a single game in his four seasons. Should the Cowboys give him the contract? He's not a generational talent that will haunt the city of Dallas for decades if he gets away, and because of that, I would hesitate to commit long-term at that valuation right now.
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