WHAT IS BILL O'BRIEN DOING?!?!? The biggest surprise of this crazy offseason was probably the DeAndre Hopkins trade between Houston and Arizona. After winning the AFC South, Houston lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, despite getting out to a 24-0 lead to start the game. Trading Hopkins after such a strong season is such a confusing move as they took potentially the best receiver in the league away from their young star quarterback. Although they gave away Hopkins, the Texans were able to acquire David Johnson and Brandin Cooks. Both have been very productive in the league and could wind up being huge additions for Houston, but they both had arguably the worst seasons of their respective careers last year.
One thing going right for Houston is the quarterback position. Watson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league already and he's only 24. He's the only quarterback to finish top five in fantasy points in both of the last two seasons. Without DeAndre Hopkins this year, it might be difficult to duplicate those performances. The Texans added David Johnson and Brandin Cooks to help give the offense more depth, but the overall talent, sans Hopkins, is without a doubt worse than it was last year. When Watson gets the ball, he takes full advantage, as the Texans finished seventh in the league in points per drive. He can get it done with his legs too, as Watson scored just as many rushing touchdowns last season as Lamar Jackson. Currently, Deshaun Watson is projected as a top 5 quarterback this year which means, depending on how much your league values the position, he will be taken as early as round four. With all of the question marks around the receivers and running backs, I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting Watson unless he fell to the eighth or ninth round.
David Johnson cannot be happy with all the slander being thrown on his name. If the trade hadn't include Hopkins, I think Houston fans would have been ecstatic about the addition of Johnson. Unfortunately, because of their favorite player's departure, the fans of Houston will be overanalyzing David Johnson's every move. He was the best running back in fantasy football just four years ago, even though it feels like it's been an eternity. After David Johnson's breakout sophomore season, he got injured in the first game of 2017, causing him to miss the remainder of the year. At the conclusion of the 2018 season, the Cardinals moved on from their head coach, Bruce Arians, and David Johnson was never the same. Last season, Kyler Murray finished the year with only one less rushing attempt (93) than David Johnson (94), so Kliff Kingsbury wasn't even interested in seeing what Johnson had left in the tank. DJ was given more than 10 carries in five of the first six weeks last year, before being benched, and during those five games, he averaged a respectable 4.1 yards per carry, which would have been tied with Joe Mixon. He also averaged nearly 5 yards per carry in the two games where he was given more than 15 attempts so, despite a small sample size, that would have been top ten in the league. Currently, Johnson is projected as a low-end RB2 and is expected to be drafted as high as round 2 or could fall to the fourth round. A second-round pick is a hefty price to pay for someone with a history of injuries and who hasn't had a productive season in over three years. If you're lucky enough to draft him in round four or later, though, it should be a no-brainer. The backup running back, Duke Johnson, had the opportunity to win the running back position in Houston last year but failed to beat out Carlos Hyde, so I don't expect him to be worth drafting this year except in deeper leagues. If David Johnson can stay healthy this year, he will be one of this year's biggest sleepers.
The receiving core in Houston is ehhhhh. Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller have both proven they can be elite wide receivers, but they each have been surrounded with a lot more talent throughout their career than they are going to have this season. Both of these receivers have a career average of 14.3 yards per reception, which would have been top 25 among wide receivers last season. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson loves to throw the ball downfield, which makes these receivers seem like the perfect fit in Houston. Watson finished last year, top ten in the league in air yards per pass attempt, in air yards per completion, and percentage of attempts that were on target. Both of these receivers need a quarterback who can keep the play alive and accurately throw them the deep ball, which just so happens to be Watson's forte. It also wouldn't be too far-fetched to believe this team will be playing from behind a lot this year, which would mean they should be throwing the ball a lot more. Both of these receivers are expected to be drafted around the same time, and it's a toss-up on which guy will finish the season as the number one receiver. Unfortunately, there are so many question marks surrounding this offense, that neither is expected to be anything more than a flex option to start the season. Both Cooks and Fuller have been projected as falling to rounds seven or eight in most mock drafts. The fact that experts have both of these receivers falling so far in the draft and being projected so close to each other shows how uncertain everyone is on what this Texans offense is going to look this year. Both of these receivers are only 26 years old currently and, despite having two fewer years of experience in the league, Fuller has yet to play a full 16 game season and has missed 20 games over the last three seasons. Cooks, on the other hand, will be playing for his fourth team in the last five years. He's played on three of the best offensive teams in the league (Saints, Patriots, Rams) and has finished with over 1,000 yards in four of his six seasons. Between these two receivers, I will take my chances on Cooks to be the receiver to attempt to fill Hopkins' role this year as Watson's go-to-guy. If Cooks is available in round seven or later, I would take him in a heartbeat. I'm worried about Fuller's injury-riddled career up to this point and wouldn't take him unless he fell to round ten or later. As for the remaining receiving core in Houston, there's a reason I didn't mention anyone other than Fuller and Cooks. The third receiver spot will be a battle between KeKe Coutee, Kenny Stills, and newcomer Randall Cobb. If Cooks or Fuller suffers an injury, I would bet on KeKe Coutee getting the extra reps, so if you're in a deeper league looking for a late-round sleeper, I would keep an eye on him. The tight end position in Houston is almost strictly for blocking, they haven't had a player finish top ten in receiving yards among tight ends since Owen Daniels in 2012. I don't expect Darren Fells to change that this year, so I'm staying far away.
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