It's hard to believe at this time last year, the Colts still had Andrew Luck and appeared to be on the cusp of being one of the top AFC teams for the next five to ten years. After Luck's sudden retirement, Jacoby Brissett took over and started the season strong, with a 6-4 record, including a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately, the Colts ended up losing five of their last six games, causing them to miss the playoffs and putting the franchise dangerously close to rebuild mode... again. This offseason, only the Miami Dolphins had more cap space to sign free agents than Indy. With over $85M available to them, almost $50M went to just two players, Philip Rivers and DeForest Buckner. Rivers signed a deal for $25M a day after Brady signed with Tampa Bay, which makes you wonder how much the Colts were pursing Brady. Some people wanted to write Rivers off after last season, and he very well could retire soon, but I think he will be an upgrade for this team, who could have a shot at winning a weak division.
Rivers, who played his first 16 years in the league with the Chargers, signed a one year deal to play in Indianapolis this offseason. From a fantasy perspective, Rivers hasn't been a top-five quarterback since the 2010 season, and with the lack of proven playmakers around him, I don't see that changing. With the Chargers, he was playing alongside Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry. That offense was loaded and in his final season, Rivers even finished top ten in passing attempts and top five in passing yards, so they were not afraid to throw the ball. Despite being near the top in passing yards, he still threw more interceptions than anyone not named Jameis or Baker. That makes TEN CONSECUTIVE YEARS, where Rivers has thrown double-digit interceptions, which is why he's not proven to be a consistently trustworthy fantasy quarterback. Currently, Rivers is being projected around QB25 and, while I don't think he will be nearly that bad, he still isn't draftable in standard leagues. Rivers this year should be nothing more than a waiver-wire addition during your quarterback's bye week.
Unlike the quarterback position, the running back depth chart in Indianapolis is as clear as mud heading into the season. Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines have been sharing the running back duties the past couple of years, but the Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor from Wisconsin in the second round this year. Taylor averaged over 2,000 rushing yards a season in college and, if he had returned for his senior season, was less than 1,000 yards off the NCAA record. Heading into the season, most experts believe Taylor is going to take over this backfield sooner or later, and Marlon Mack will be an above-average handcuff. Last year, Marlon Mack finished top ten in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns among RB's but failed to finish top 20 in fantasy points (total and points per game). The Colts offensive line was a big key in Mack's rushing success last season as he finished sixth in the league in yards before contact with 591. It's not if, but when Jonathan Taylor is given the opportunity to lead this backfield, he is going to be very special and could eventually be a top-five back in the league. In his three seasons at Wisconsin, he averaged over 300 carries a season, so with all that wear and tear, it wouldn't surprise me if the Colts try to use both backs as evenly as possible to keep them both fresh all year. Currently, Johnathan Taylor is projected as a low-end RB2 being drafted somewhere between rounds 5 to 7. Meanwhile, Mack is projected around RB40 and being drafted near round 8 or 9. The biggest question for me is, will Jonathan Taylor be able to chip away at Hines' share of the receptions out of the backfield? Taylor only had eight receptions in each of his first two collegiate seasons and had 26 in his final season, so although the gameplan might not have called for it, it's a little alarming that he never was able to show his ability. Philip Rivers is notorious for throwing the ball a million times a game, the Colts were notorious for throwing the ball before Luck's sudden retirement, and there's more than just two talented backs on this roster, so for those reasons, I'm staying away from both of these guys come draft day.
If the Colts plan on getting back to throwing the ball a ton this year, their receiving core should be in for a big year. TY Hilton is the number one receiver and the only trusted member of this offense. After Hilton, the two receivers who are expected to fight for the remaining targets are Parris Campbell and rookie Michael Pittman Jr. Campbell is a second-year receiver, who had a disappointing rookie season and is looking to turn it around in year two. He appeared in just seven games and finished the season with only 127 total receiving yards. Meanwhile, Pittman was one of four receivers last year to have over 100 receptions and finished ninth in the nation in receiving yards. With very little depth at the wide receiver position, they should both see the field a good amount and could become fantasy standouts if they mesh well with Rivers. Currently, both of these receivers are projected to be drafted in the tenth round or later in standard leagues, so you don't have to worry about reaching for them. I would lean towards Pittman personally, but I think these are both great late-round additions to your bench. Hilton, being the team's number one receiver, is projected as a low-end WR2 and expected to be taken at the end of round four or five. With Rivers behind center, Hilton should return to top 20 WR production level, as long as he remains healthy, but the upside still seems very limited. The fourth round might be a little early for my liking, but Hilton in the fifth round is a solid WR2/Flex pick. Another name to pay attention to in Indy is the tight end, Jack Doyle. Rivers always used his tight ends with the Chargers, and Eric Ebron is no longer in Indy, which seems like the perfect storm for a breakout year from Doyle. He's never finished higher than TE7 in his career, so although he's very reliable, he has a very low ceiling and isn't expected to be drafted until the very last few rounds. If you plan to wait this late to draft a tight end, Hayden Hurst and Chris Herndon offer far more potential and upside, so I would recommend passing on Doyle.