Winners:
Joe Mixon- The Bengals did it! They went with the obvious pick and they didn't mess it up. Mixon found a way, through all of the madness last season, to finish as a top 15 fantasy RB. With the addition of Burrow as well as getting AJ Green and some offensive lineman healthy this will be a completely different team than last year. Mixon should receive less attention from opposing defenses this year, which should lead to an even better year than last season.
Cam Akers- I was anxious to see which running back would end up with the Rams. Once Gurley was cut earlier this offseason, there was a clear opportunity for a rookie to be drafted and have a chance to win the starting spot. Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown are the other two backs at the top of the depth chart, but after both failed to capitalize on their opportunities last season, Akers could easily win this job. Unless there is some clarity before the season, all of these backs should fall in fantasy drafts and whoever leads this backfield will be in the RB2 range. The Rams didn't have a first-round pick this year and chose Akers with their first available pick, which leads me to believe they want to give him a real shot this year.
Todd Gurley- The Falcons steered clear from the running backs in this deep class, which should be a good sign for Gurley's value. There were nine running backs taken in the first three rounds this year, which were the most taken in the first three rounds since 2008 when Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles were all taken at the end of the first round or later. This class had enough depth to grab a handcuff for Gurley and his eventual replacement, but either the Falcons love Ito Smith or they are all in on Gurley this year.
Adam Thielen- With Diggs by his side, Thielen has been a huge target averaging over 75 catches and 1,000 yards over the past four seasons. With Diggs gone, teams will want to key in on Thielen, but with Cook in the backfield and now Justin Jefferson lining up beside him, opposing teams will have plenty to worry about. Jefferson will fall in the WR3/Flex range for most of the season and might be hit or miss as a rookie, but I think this will do wonders for Thielen's fantasy value.
Aaron Rodgers?- Alright, this one might be a little bit of a stretch, but people forget how great Aaron Rodgers is sometimes until he reminds us. Last year, Rodgers was aware that the Packers might draft his eventual replacement this year and when he was asked about it he said, "No matter who you bring in, they're not going to be able to beat me out anytime soon." This is the same man who told the media a few seasons ago that he thought that the 4-6 Packers, who were on a four-game losing streak, could run the table... and they did. This guy is currently eighth all-time in touchdown passes thrown despite only having one (1) to a first-round draft pick. Essentially what I'm saying is, the Packers drafting Jordan Love might have just lit a fire under Rodgers and it wouldn't be a surprise if Rodgers finishes as a top 3 fantasy QB this season.
Losers:
Kerryon Johnson- After two injury-riddled seasons to start his career, the Lions drafted D'Andre Swift out of Georgia, who was the top-rated running back according to some experts. Detroit has a lot of holes to fill on this roster but decided to use their second-round pick on another running back. Despite the injuries, Kerryon Johnson has shown some promise in his first couple of years and I'm honestly shocked that the Lions went with another running back that early. It's hard to imagine the Lions taking Swift at the beginning of the second round and not using him, so Kerryon went from an every-down back to at best the lead back in a running back by committee backfield. Johnson is still a nice late-round pick and should still see some touches, but Swift will likely be taken before him in most fantasy drafts and should have the higher fantasy ceiling this year.
Marlon Mack- The Colts acquired Philip Rivers this offseason to fill their need at QB, so going into the draft receiver and defense appeared to be the Colts' biggest needs. They grabbed a receiver in Michael Pittman at the beginning of round two, but when Jonathan Taylor was still on the board at pick 41, they decided to trade up to take him. Trading up to take Taylor either means the Colts don't think Mack is the long-term solution at running back or they loved Jonathan Taylor and didn't think he was falling to them. Either way that should be a red flag for Mack's fantasy value for this coming season. Taylor finished 23 yards shy of 2,000 yards rushing his Freshman year, otherwise, he would have run for 2K+ yards all three years. If he had returned to Wisconsin for his senior season, he would have easily broken the record for career rushing yards. The usage in college is slightly concerning, but Mack shouldn't get too comfortable because his leash just got a lot shorter.
Defenses who have to face the Ravens- The Ravens used the second-round pick they received from Atlanta in the Hayden Hurst trade to select J.K. Dobbins from Ohio State. Dobbins was one of three college backs to have 300+ carries and 2,000+ rushing yards last year and J.K. led the other two with 6.7 yards per carry. This Ravens team already led the league in carries, yards, yards per carry, and yards per game last year with Jackson and Ingram. With Dobbins added into the mix, it will allow the Ravens to spread the carries out more evenly and keep the defenses guessing. Opposing defenses are going to have a nightmare next year trying to find a way to stop this explosive offense.
Damien Williams- The Super Bowl Champion Chiefs had defensive needs and also could have used some help on the offensive line, but with their first-round pick, they decided to draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Damien Williams only has one year left on his contract and has been huge for Kansas City in the past two playoffs, but he's been wildly inconsistent in the regular seasons. Edwards-Helaire is a great receiving back and with the Chiefs' style of offense, he seems like a perfect fit. Williams seems to be on his way out of Kansas City, and even if he starts the season as part of a committee, it feels like this will be Clyde Edwards-Helaire's job before the end of the year.
The Cowboys Receiving Core- I don't think many people, including the Cowboys, thought Dallas would go with a wide receiver with their first-round pick. On the other hand, not many people expected CeeDee Lamb, who some viewed as the top receiver in the draft, would still be there at pick 17. This was a great value pick and could end up being one of the biggest steals in the draft, but this pick is going to give fantasy owner headaches. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup were already risky, boom-or-bust receivers last year, despite both finishing as top 25 WR's. Cooper had six games last year scoring single-digits in fantasy, opposed to five games where he scored more than 20 fantasy points. Gallup finished with five games scoring single-digit fantasy points and four games of 20 points or more. Adding another playmaker like Lamb into this bunch is amazing for Dak's fantasy value, but every week it will be a flip of the coin on who will be receiving the targets.
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