After back to back seasons in the playoffs in 2016 and 2017, the Falcons felt confident in their offense, but now after back to back losing seasons they've made some major renovations. Devonta Freeman was cut to save cap space and Austin Hooper wasn't able to be resigned as he left for Cleveland, which left two big question marks in the Falcons offense. Atlanta wasted no time, as they traded draft picks to Baltimore for former first-round pick Hayden Hurst and they also agreed to a one year deal with Todd Gurley. The interesting thing about both of these new guys is they're both coming in with a chip on their shoulder. Todd Gurley, despite finishing first, first, and 14th among running backs the last three seasons, saw his workload decrease this year. Then the Rams cut him this offseason because of injury concerns involving his knees. The Falcons' other acquisition, Hayden Hurst, was taken seven picks before Lamar Jackson in the 2018 draft, but quickly lost the starting job to Mark Andrews, who was taken in the third round of the same draft. Both of these guys are coming to Atlanta trying to prove that they still have it and this offense might be the perfect fit for them. Matt Ryan is a very streaky quarterback, but despite a few mental mistakes during games, he is usually a reliable fantasy option. He hasn't thrown less than 20 touchdowns since his rookie season, he has a career 65% completion percentage (which would have ranked 12th last year right behind Mahomes), and last season he finished third in passing attempts only ten attempts behind first despite playing one less game. All of those stats are to show that Atlanta has and always will be a pass-first team and with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Ryan has QB1 potential every season. Last year, he finished as QB11 even though he was having a below-average season. He will probably be around the tenth quarterback taken this year and he will most likely be going in round seven or later, which is a great spot for someone who could easily lead the league in passing attempts. The running back situation went from one injury-riddled back to another injury-riddled back, except with a little more upside. In his first few seasons with the Rams, Gurley made everyone forget about his knee problems from college. After riding the bench at the end of the 2018 season, including the Super Bowl, it was clear there was something wrong with him. But if he was injured last year, you couldn't tell because he was still making the most of all of the touches he was given as he finished the season RB14 in a reduced role. Devonta Freeman played 14 games last year and had 243 touches. Atlanta's other three backs had over 120 combined carries, which leaves a lot of potential opportunities for Gurley. Since the Falcons only signed him to a one year deal, I fully expect them to use him as a workhorse like his 2017 and 2018 seasons, where he finished as RB1. Looking at most experts' predictions, they are viewing him around RB15 or later and expected to be a third or fourth-round pick in drafts. His injury concern is the only reason you shouldn't draft him, otherwise, he would be a first-round pick. If I can get him in the fourth round, I would jump on that opportunity, but using one of my first three picks on someone who has only played all 16 games in one season is not worth the risk in my opinion. The fantasy-relevant receiving core for the Falcons will be Jones, Ridley, and Hurst. Julio Jones has been a top ten receiver for what feels like the past decade and should be an obvious first-round pick. The additions on offense shouldn't affect him much, as he already sees over 150 targets a year and I don't see him losing any of those. Calvin Ridley is one of the best young receivers in the game and even though he missed the last 3 weeks of the season, he was still a top 20 receiver on a fantasy points per game basis. Austin Hooper was one of the most targeted tight ends last season, as he was targeted 97 times, which means nearly 100 targets are up for grabs. I think Ridley and Hurst will split those targets, so if Ridley stays healthy all year, he could be a top 15 wide receiver, even with Julio being the top dog. Hurst only saw 39 targets last year behind Andrews, but he caught 30 of those, so his hands aren't the problem. Ryan has always used his tight ends in the passing game, so Hurst could be a potential fantasy sleeper this year. He might go undrafted in some or most leagues, but he's worth a late-round pick or at least a guy you want to keep an eye on. The other receiving options in Atlanta are Russell Gage and recently signed Laquon Treadwell, who will be fighting for the third receiver spot, but neither will be worthy of rostering in fantasy as Gurley, Jones, and Ridley will see the majority of the targets.
Alex Zani
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