In Matt Nagy's first season with the Chicago Bears, they finished the season with a 12-4 record before the infamous double doink field goal attempt sent them packing in the Wild Card round. After that impressive season, the Bears headed into the 2019 season with very high hopes. The first half of the season did not go as planned, as they went 3-5, with two close losses against the Raiders and the Chargers. They were able to turn it around in the second half of the year, finishing a respectable 8-8, but still missed out on the playoffs. Despite the impressive 12-4 record in 2018, Nagy and Trubisky are both heading into the 2020 year on thin ice, or at least, it feels that way after the disappointing 2018 playoffs and lack of playoffs last year. Chicago added Nick Foles via trade this offseason and is slated as the backup to Mitch, but that could change in a hurry if Trubisky continues to struggle like he did last year. With the addition of another playoff team this year, the Bears should be in 'playoffs or rebuild' mode. The quarterback position is one of the biggest question marks for Chicago heading into this year. They added another starting level QB via trade this offseason and the expectation is they will both compete for the starting job. Although we don't know who exactly is going to be the starter at this point in the offseason, they are very similar in a lot of ways. Foles has been a journeyman in his eight years in the league playing, for now, his fifth different team. He has been wildly inconsistent when given an opportunity, finishing one season 8-2 as the starter with 27 touchdowns and only two (2!!!) interceptions and then two seasons later finishing 4-7 with seven touchdowns and ten interceptions. Those were Foles only two seasons of starting at least ten games. Chicago's current starter, Mitch Trubisky, has only been in the league for three seasons, but he also knows a thing or two about inconsistency. His record as a starter has been 4-8, 11-3, 8-7 respectively in his three seasons in the league and he has never had higher than a 2-1 TD-INT ratio in a single season. Last year Trubisky finished last among qualified QB's in yards per attempt and bottom five in passing yards per game and QB rating. Stats don't tell everything, but when a QB isn't trusted enough to throw the ball downfield that's normally not one I'm looking to draft in fantasy. Both of these quarterbacks find their career averages in passing yards per game below 210, completion percentage below 64%, and have only accounted for 20 touchdowns or more in a season twice combined. Last season, Lamar Jackson, who is known for his rushing and often criticized for his passing, threw for a little over 208 yards per game last year with a 66% completion percentage and 36 passing touchdowns. None of those stats include his rushing which added another 80 yards per game and seven additional touchdowns. The point I'm trying to make is, no matter which quarterback wins this competition, they will need to have an extraordinary season to make a fantasy impact. Neither of these QB's are being projected as draftable players unless it's a 2 QB league. Considering all of the uncertainty around who will start and how long of a leash will they be given, I will be staying away from these guys in my drafts. The running back situation in Chicago was a little uncertain at times last year, but the second half of the season appears to have set the record straight. David Montgomery came in as a rookie last season and immediately got the majority of the carries after the Bears gave... I mean traded Jordan Howard to the Eagles. Montgomery was overshadowed by fellow rookie Josh Jacobs in Oakland, but David was very successful in his first season as well. He finished the season as RB24 in fantasy and finished top 20 in the league in carries and rushing yards. The Bears also went 6-1 last year in games in which Montgomery was given 15 or more carries. In a non-ppr league, Montgomery could be a potential 3rd round pick, but his fantasy value drops significantly in ppr leagues because of his lack of targets. He caught less than two catches per game last year and because of that, he's being projected as a 5th or 6th rounder in normal drafts. The other running back in Chicago, Tarik Cohen, is a very explosive back used in the passing game. He only topped five carries in a game three times last year but was targeted at least five times in eleven games. Cohen finished last season as RB27 and finished with double-digit fantasy points in half of his games. Cohen is not going to be a top 10 RB, but he is being vastly underrated and being projected as a 9th rounder or later. By the 9th round of the draft, you should be looking for anyone who can help contribute to your team and a potential diamond in the rough. Cohen is not used in the run game at all, but his receiving alone makes him a borderline flex every week and a great bye-week fill-in running back. The Bears might add a running back in the draft or from the remaining free agents, but currently, if Montgomery were to miss time, the only other RB's on the roster are Cohen and Ryan Nall. So looking at Montgomery's limited upside in ppr leagues and the similar seasons they had last year, I would rather wait until the later rounds and take Cohen and hope he finishes as a top 30 RB again. The Bears receiving core is a one-man act right now, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Bears take a chance on another receiver in the draft with such a deep receiving class. Last season, despite the down year from Trubisky, Allen Robinson II finished the season as WR8 and only had three games of under double-digit fantasy points. This wasn't just a one year wonder either, in 2015 during his sophomore season, Robinson had over 200 more yards and twice as many touchdowns (14) as he did this year. Blake Bortles was his quarterback in 2015, so if he can finish as a top 10 fantasy WR with Bortles and Trubisky all season, that makes Robinson QB-proof. Robinson is being projected as a top 10 to 15 WR this season, depending on who you're talking to, and most have him as an early 3rd round pick. The number 2 WR is currently Anthony Miller but after two disappointing seasons, he won't have many more opportunities. He finished last season as WR56 and if it weren't for five straight weeks of double-digit fantasy points (weeks 11-15) he would have finished a lot lower. Those five weeks made some wonder if he turned it around and was on his way to being fantasy-relevant, but after totaling just two (2) catches for seven (7) yards combined in weeks 16 and 17 those thoughts were put to rest. Miller is currently being drafted in round 11 or later as a late-round gamble. If the Bears take one of the top receivers in this year's draft, that might remove Miller from draft boards. Jimmy Graham was signed this offseason to replace Trey Burton. Graham finished last season outside of the top 20 TE's and Aaron Rodgers was throwing him the ball. I know everyone wants to take a flier on Jimmy in hopes of him resurrecting his glory days with the Saints, but if Wilson and Rodgers couldn't make it happen, neither will Trubisky or Foles. Graham currently isn't projected as a draftable player and it's probably best that way. The Bears finished last season in the top half of the league in passing attempts but the bottom half of the league in rushing attempts. With the lack of receiving options, if this trend continues, Robinson should be in for another great season and is well worth a third-round pick. Miller, on the other hand, has not shown any consistency in his first two seasons, so it would be hard for me to trust him at all even as a bye-week filler. If you're in a deeper league and wanting to take a shot a Chicago receiver not named Robinson, I would wait a little longer and take Riley Ridley over wasting an earlier pick on Miller. Ridley wasn't given many opportunities in his rookie season last year, but he caught six of the seven passes thrown his way, which were all within the last few weeks of the season.
- Alex Zani