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  • Alex Zani

Denver Broncos: 2020 Fantasy Outlook

Ever since winning Super Bowl 50, Denver has struggled to find its way back into the postseason. Kansas City has become the team to beat in the AFC West and the Broncos understand if they are planning on winning during the Mahomes-era, they need offensive weapons as well. The addition of Melvin Gordon during free agency and the use of their first two picks on wide receivers shows the Broncos are committed to improving their offense. Last year, Denver finished in the bottom five in scoring, only managing a total of 16 more points than the last place Washington Redskins. Drew Lock is headed into the 2020 season as the starting quarterback after being the last man standing last year. Joe Flacco started the 2019 season under center for the Broncos, but after a 2-6 start, Denver decided he was no longer elite enough. Brandon Allen took over for a few starts and went 1-2, but after only managing three points against Buffalo, it was Lock's turn. Drew and the Broncos finished the season 4-1, only losing to the eventual Super Bowl Champs. During those last five games, although they won, his fantasy performances weren't spectacular. Other than a decent 23 point outburst against Houston, he was held to less than 13 fantasy points in his other four starts. With that being said, this offseason the Broncos hired Pat Shurmur as their new offensive coordinator, who recently coached Daniel Jones and Case Keenum during years where they exceeded expectations. With the organization putting a heavy emphasis on improving the offense, a new pass-heavy offensive coordinator, and an offseason for Lock to sit back and learn the entire playbook, there are a lot of things to like about him this year. Currently, Lock is slotted around QB20, which means he wouldn't be taken in a standard league. With the small sample size, we got last year, I wouldn't suggest using a draft pick on him, but I'll be keeping my eye on him throughout the season. Lock is my sleeper pick this season at the quarterback position, even though he's projected around QB20, I think he finishes the year closer to QB10 and becomes a fan favorite. Denver's running game will be one of the more exciting committees to watch. The addition of Gordon makes it clear that Royce Freeman is on the outside looking in and, unless multiple injuries occur, it's unlikely he becomes fantasy relevant this year. Last season, when Gordon came back from his holdout, the Chargers were able to use both Ekeler and Gordon together and producing at high levels. The two backs were the only running back tandem to both average 15 fantasy points or more throughout the entire season. During weeks 1-4, when Ekeler was the only back, he averaged over 13 carries a game, but after Gordon returned in week five, Ekeler only received double-digit carries in one game when he had 12. Despite the lack of carries, the Chargers found ways to use Ekeler in the passing game, which allowed him to score 10 or more fantasy points 15 out of 16 weeks. I know Austin Ekeler is still on the Chargers, but my point is even though Melvin Gordon is probably going to lead the team in touches, there is still potential for Phillip Lindsey to be a fantasy star. Currently, Gordon is projected anywhere from RB10 to RB20 and expected to be drafted in the fourth or fifth round. Gordon in the fourth or fifth round would be an absolute steal in my opinion. He finished as a top 10 running back three years straight, from 2016-2018, and last year he was RB7 from week nine on, which shows he still has plenty left in the tank. There are lots of good backs this year, but I would take Gordon before Edwards-Helaire, Miles Sanders, Gurley, and some of the other guys projected ahead of him. Phillip Lindsay finished as a top 20 RB last year, but now is being viewed mostly as a handcuff to Gordon. The earliest I've seen Lindsay drafted was in an ESPN Mock draft where he was taken at the beginning of the eighth round. Most projections have him closer to round ten, which is a great spot for him. If you're able to get Gordon, reaching for Lindsay as his handcuff in round eight is a great idea, otherwise, I would wait for a couple more rounds and only take him as a bye-week fill in. Cortland Sutton was the only bright spot in the Broncos receiving game last year. Chris Godwin and DJ Moore were the only two receivers under 25 who had more yards than Sutton last year. Sutton also ranked top 20 among receivers in targets and yards per reception, so he's one of the best young receivers in the game. Now that he's not the only weapon on offense, the defense can't focus all of their attention on just him. The Broncos selected Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler with their first two picks in the draft. With Cortland Sutton being the only proven Broncos receiver coming into the season, I expect both of these guys getting targets early in the season with a chance to prove they deserve more targets. Jeudy is more of a deep ball and red-zone threat, while Hamler is more of a slot receiver, so they could both fit into this offense alongside Sutton perfectly. Cortland Sutton is projected as a WR2, but some have him closer to a top 10 WR and some have him outside of their top 20. He's currently expected to go somewhere between round three and round five, which is a little too expensive for my liking. Although he had a strong season last year, in the final five weeks, when Lock was under center, he had more games of single-digit fantasy points (3) than he did the rest of the year combined (2). Although I expect Lock to improve, I am worried Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, and others might cut into Sutton's production. Jeudy is projected as a later round pick, going as early as round seven or eight, but might fall to round ten or later. Jeudy is an interesting late-round prospect and if you need bench receivers with top 20 WR talent, look no further. Hamler will go undrafted in standard leagues, but this is a name to keep in mind the first few weeks of the season because if he pops off the Broncos could keep feeding him. Another threat for the Broncos in the receiving game is the tight end, Noah Fant. He had two games last year where he scored over 20 fantasy points, but other than that, it was a forgettable season. With a year's worth of NFL experience under his belt, he's hoping to make a leap in his second season. Hayden Hurst and Noah Fant are the two names experts keep throwing around when debating on who this year's Mark Andrews or Darren Waller might be. Between Hurst and Fant, I prefer Fant as my late-round tight end sleeper pick ready to make a name for himself this year. The preseason hype has him shooting up draft boards recently, so if you can get him in round nine or later, I think that would be a decent draft pick to take a risk on him.

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