While we might not have any games to keep us entertained right now, the NFL has picked up the slack with free agency kicking off this week. Monday brought unexpected trades while Tuesday brought some news about veteran quarterbacks on the move. The biggest surprise of the week was DeAndre Hopkins on the move to Arizona in exchange for David Johnson and picks which was a lackluster return for one of the top receivers in the game. Later in the day, the Bills traded a few picks for Stefon Diggs who had one foot out the door of Minnesota all last season. When Tuesday rolled around we saw Teddy Bridgewater agree to terms with Carolina, Phillip Rivers to Indianapolis and the biggest surprise of all Tom Brady is NOT returning to New England after 20 seasons. I want to take a look at each of these players and others to give my thoughts on how it will affect their upcoming fantasy season.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brady's move on paper looks like a huge upgrade from his previous offense. Despite playing with amazing players like Moss, Gronkowski, Edelman, and others in New England this Tampa Bay team might have the most weapons he's ever had in a single season. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both top 10 wide receivers in the league right now and the combo of Cameron Brate and OJ Howard have shown promise at times. I think this is a positive move for Brady's fantasy value because we know Arians and the Bucs like to score points which ultimately means more fantasy points for Brady. He finished as QB12 last season and has only topped 300 fantasy points once in the last five seasons which is the same amount of times as Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff and the man he's replacing Jameis Winston. So, Brady has never been a dominant QB when it comes to fantasy, but I think this year he's worthy of a late-round flier because with very little faith in the backfield he will be leaned upon heavily in this offense.
Philip Rivers- Indianapolis Colts
Rivers signed with Indy and is reconnecting with a couple of his old quarterback coaches in Frank Reich and Nick Sirianni. With the Chargers, Rivers used to throw the ball a ton. The transfer should be pretty smooth since he's already familiar with their coaching styles, but the talent disparity between the Chargers and the Colts might be a little more challenging. TY Hilton is a top 10 receiver when healthy but after him, there are some question marks. Going from Hunter Henry to Jack Doyle at tight end is a drop-off and he won't have a clear cut second receiver as he had with Mike Williams. We know Frank Reich and the Colts aren't afraid to throw the ball because they threw it 644 times when Luck was healthy in 2018, which would have ranked second in the league this past season. Ultimately, I think this is a better real-life fit than it is in the fantasy world and Rivers has never been an elite fantasy quarterback and I expect it to stay that way this year.
Teddy Bridgewater- Carolina Panthers
It appears Teddy is finally going to be a starting NFL quarterback again. He's got an overall record of 22-12 as a starter including going 5-0 this past season while filling in for an injured Brees. His only full season as a starter was 2015 in Minnesota when he went 11-5 with Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Even with such an impressive record he still only finished that season as QB23. Adrian Peterson averaged 26 touches per game during the 2015 season and Christian McCaffrey averaged 24 touches last season, so I expect the Panthers to utilize Teddy similarly to how the Vikings used him when they won the NFC North. Unfortunately, Teddy isn't much of a runner so you won't get much upside from rushing stats like other quarterbacks and with such a dynamic player in the backfield he won't be counted upon to throw quite as much either which hurts his fantasy value. This is a great signing for the Panthers and I'm excited to see what Bridgewater can do with his first starting gig since his injuries, but I am staying away from him in fantasy drafts.
Running Backs
David Johnson- Houston Texans
David Johnson's career has been nothing short of a roller coaster ride filled with lots of highs and lots of lows. 2015 was his rookie season where he only started 5 games while sharing backfield duties with CJ2K. Despite receiving fewer touches than Chris Johnson throughout the season he finished the season as the seventh-best fantasy running back. Since his rookie season, he's finished as the top running back in 2016, was injured during the first game in 2017, finished as the tenth best running back in 2018, and last season saw his touches drop to fewer than his rookie year. I'm not sure what is going on with David Johnson if the injuries have lingered or if he hasn't healed 100% yet from them, but I see this fresh start as an opportunity to prove to the world that he can still be a top RB in this league. Last year he was grouped in with the elite RB's, which will obviously change in this year's draft, but I would take him as an RB2 if I drafted today. I expect him to go in the third or fourth rounds of drafts, but with Hopkins on his way out of Houston there will be plenty of opportunities for touches and there's not much competition in the backfield currently for Johnson. Overall I think this is a positive move for David Johnson... Houston, on the other hand, I'm not sure what they were thinking.
Todd Gurley- Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman was released, so the Falcons brought the UGA product back home. After finishing the 2018 season off with knee injuries that held him out of most of the NFL playoffs, his role in 2019 was cut drastically. His knee problems have been clear since his time in college but despite those problems, he's always been a top tier RB in the league. If you're trying to win an NFL Championship, I can understand being a little reserved about trusting a guy who doesn't appear to have the longevity to last a full 16 games plus playoffs. In terms of fantasy value though this guy has consistently been a top producer. He's never finished with less than 150 fantasy points in a season and has never finished lower than RB20. The Rams don't want to commit to paying a guy who might continue to break down on them late in the season and had a chance to make a business decision to save a lot of money, so I understand that side of things but don't let this affect your view on him as a fantasy player. His contract with Atlanta is only for one year, so there is no long term commitment which means I expect the Falcons to give him as many touches as they can this year. Since coming into the league in 2015, Gurley has finished as RB5, RB20, RB1, RB1, RB12 so if he falls to me late in round 2 or 3 I will take all of the Todd Gurley stock this season.
Melvin Gordon- Denver Broncos
This might have been the most surprising signing to me because although I knew Gordon would be on the move I didn't expect the Broncos to be buyers in the RB free-agent market. Last year, Denver used a two-back rotation of Phillip Lindsey and Royce Freeman. I expect them to move on from one of those two RB's, otherwise, Gordon is no better than an RB3 this year. He's only played a full season once in his five-year career and despite only playing 12 games last season only Chris Carson and Derrick Henry had more fumbles at the running back position. With all that being said, Melvin Gordon is a great addition to Denver's football team, but we probably won't know how effective Gordon will be from a fantasy perspective until the season starts. My initial feeling is that after a weird season last year due to his holdout his average draft position is gonna fall drastically this season. If I can get Melvin Gordon as my RB3 or RB4 in round 5 or later I will take that chance, but I don't think the gamble is worth wasting a top pick on him.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins- Arizona Cardinals
This move caught a lot of people by surprise and I can only imagine how excited the Cardinals were when Houston agreed or offered the trade. Hopkins is without a doubt a top WR in the league right now and the Cardinals were ready to move on from David Johnson, so not only were they able to offload DJ's contract, but they also acquired one of the best receivers in the game. Kyler Murray had a pretty successful rookie season despite not having many (or any) weapons around him. Larry Fitzgerald is still a very productive WR2 at age 36, but his days as being the primary receiver are behind him and Hopkins is a perfect fit for that role. Murray attempted 542 passes last season, which was ninth in the league, so this high octane offense has plenty of targets for a man who has finished as a top 10 fantasy WR the last 3 seasons and is only 27 years young. This is a great move for Arizona, they are doing everything they can to ensure the Kingsbury-Murray era succeeds. Hopkins was already in a great position with Houston so it's hard to say he's better off in Arizona because you never truly know how someone will fit into a new offense but he is still worthy of a 1st round pick and to be one of the first receivers off the board.
Stefon Diggs- Buffalo Bills
Despite having some amazing moments in Minnesota it was obvious that Diggs was ready for a change in scenery for whatever reason and he finally got what he wanted. The Bills finally have a clear WR1 and another deep ball threat to pair with John Brown. Josh Allen is neck and neck with Patrick Mahomes for the biggest arm in the league right now, but his accuracy on those deep balls is less than ideal. He ranked last in completion percentage among full time starting QB's last season at under 60%. According to NFL NextGen Stats, he was also fifth in the league in intended air yards, which shows the average air yards a passer throws on all attempts. Diggs played with 6 different quarterbacks in his time with the Vikings and never let that slow him down, so I don't think he will have a problem working with Allen. This was the perfect receiver for the Bills to target, but I don't like this move for Stefon Diggs's fantasy value. He is moving from one of the most consistent and accurate quarterbacks in the league to one of the most inconsistent and inaccurate. I expect to see a season full of boom and bust games for Stefon, just like the Bills receivers last season, so I see him as a fringe WR2 or WR3 and someone I would target in rounds 5-7.